# Pooled Monetary Union Analysis: Z → CA with Union Interactions

| Variable | Baseline | + Union dummy | Z × Union | Union dummies | Z₁ × each union |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 13.2271 | 12.1773 | 2.3511 | 4.6690 | 3.2994 |
| | (12.5701) | (12.6221) | (14.1097) | (12.9068) | (13.0059) |
| Z_2 | -0.8573 | -0.7388 | 0.8503 | 0.4694 | 0.6884 |
| | (1.9189) | (1.9230) | (2.1476) | (1.9604) | (1.9796) |
| Z_3 | 0.0054 | 0.0018 | -0.0677 | -0.0509 | -0.0605 |
| | (0.0789) | (0.0789) | (0.0882) | (0.0804) | (0.0813) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.3595*** | 0.3599*** | 0.3598*** | 0.3608*** | 0.3605*** |
| | (0.0283) | (0.0283) | (0.0282) | (0.0282) | (0.0282) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.9185*** | 0.9166*** | 0.8893*** | 0.8842*** | 0.8923*** |
| | (0.2219) | (0.2219) | (0.2226) | (0.2207) | (0.2210) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.1613*** | 0.1612*** | 0.1617*** | 0.1615*** | 0.1612*** |
| | (0.0168) | (0.0168) | (0.0168) | (0.0168) | (0.0168) |
| in_any_union | | -0.7061 | 0.5997 | | |
| | | (0.7934) | (1.0615) | | |
| Z_1_x_union | | | 10.2022 | | |
| | | | (32.5500) | | |
| Z_2_x_union | | | -2.4343 | | |
| | | | (4.9645) | | |
| Z_3_x_union | | | 0.1318 | | |
| | | | (0.2039) | | |
| in_emu | | | | 2.8435** | 1.8806 |
| | | | | (1.2331) | (2.2941) |
| in_cfa | | | | -2.7407** | 11.8852 |
| | | | | (1.1954) | (9.0643) |
| in_eccu | | | | -12.0458*** | -16.5761*** |
| | | | | (2.7946) | (5.4184) |
| in_cma | | | | 2.1099 | 29.5359* |
| | | | | (2.5856) | (16.2897) |
| Z_1_x_emu | | | | | 1.7367 |
| | | | | | (3.2183) |
| Z_1_x_cfa | | | | | 4.8154 |
| | | | | | (2.9543) |
| Z_1_x_eccu | | | | | -5.0464 |
| | | | | | (5.1139) |
| Z_1_x_cma | | | | | 11.2726* |
| | | | | | (6.6101) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 6509 | 6509 | 6509 | 6509 | 6509 |
| R² | 0.1045 | 0.1049 | 0.1073 | 0.1189 | 0.1208 |
| Countries | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. Full sample. Union membership = 1 for member-years post-accession. Z×Union tests whether monetary union membership amplifies the demographic channel.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*